Minnesota Vikings @ LA Rams: Sam Darnold's fairy-tale story faces defining day with team's future potentially on line

Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and now Sam Darnold. The Minnesota Vikings are riding the momentum of the NFL's latest quarterback comeback tale but how many more twists are still to come?

For months you had braced for a derailing dip in form. For months you had wondered whether his fairy-tale run was about to hit an abrupt, back-to-earth snag. But the Darnold story has rallied on in the face of his past narratives and resumes this weekend when the Vikings seek to extend their surprise playoff charge against the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card round.

Perhaps for the first time this season alarm bells sounded on Sunday as Darnold managed just 18 of 41 passing for 166 yards as the Vikings suffered a 31-9 defeat to the Detroit Lions, missing out on the NFC North title and the No 1 seed in the process.

Had the ghost-seeing Darnold of Christmas past reared its grimace-inciting head? And would that performance carry into the postseason? The biggest weekend of his career beckons, with Minnesota’s season on the line and so too, maybe, a multi-year contract.

"My confidence level that we can get him right back on track is as high as it could be," said Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell. "I know our coaches feel the same way and I know, most importantly, his team-mates feel the same way."

For the sake of Darnold you hope Sunday goes down as something of an anomalous stumble amid a season of sparkling career resurrection. That he has made it this far, that he has played this well, that he has led the Vikings to 14 wins is contrary to anything that had been expected of him or the franchise in 2024.

Darnold arrived on a one-year deal during the offseason as competition to rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy for the starting job following the free agency departure of Kirk Cousins, whose shortcomings have meanwhile made for an organisational failure in Atlanta.

A year-ending injury to McCarthy during preseason would then pave the way for Darnold to lead the way in his bid to rescue a career that had seemingly fizzled into journeyman irrelevancy. Here was his chance. Quite possibly, his final chance.

He had entered the league as the third overall pick to the Jets in 2018 only to see his development suffer in unison with New York’s perpetual misery, before spending two seasons as a bridge quarterback with the Carolina Panthers and then heading to San Francisco, where he spent the 2023 campaign as understudy to Brock Purdy.

Regardless of this weekend’s outcome, it would be a surprise had he not bought himself another opportunity as a starter, along with a new contract - be it in Minnesota or elsewhere; McCarthy will be ready to return in 2025, giving the Vikings a decision to make amid a chapter when general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been extremely intentional about making decisions in view of long-term success and sustainability. Darnold is due his reward but the Vikings may well deem paying him a risk.

The 27-year-old has been in the company of the league’s most productive quarterbacks for much of the season, entering Week 18 having completed 343 of 504 passes for 4,153 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with a fifth-ranked passer rating of 106.4.

Concerns had arisen in Week 10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars when he threw three interceptions but instead of blunting him it prompted 18 touchdowns to just two interceptions over the next seven games to post a passer rating of 114.1, including five scoring strikes in a victory over Cousins’ Falcons, followed by three apiece in wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

With Darnold's transformation has come further evidence of O'Connell's ascent as one of the NFL's most gifted offensive minds, while continuously putting his quarterback in a position to succeed. He provided the springboard and Darnold has capitalised beyond all forecasts, attacking every level of the field with aggression, betting on himself to thread the needle into tight windows, displaying impressive feel for pressure to manipulate the pocket to his advantage, making smart decisions to reach second and third reads and showcasing his athleticism as an off-platform creator, all of which he has done at an increasing rate amid doubt over whether he could sustain his early-season promise.

"I think Sam has done a great job," said Rams head coach Sean McVay. "He's always had a great ability to be able to get through progressions, activate different parts of the field and buy time with his legs. I think he's a much better athlete than maybe people give him credit for. He's moved the sticks with his legs a lot this year."

The final Sunday of the regular season sent him in a similar direction and in turn only heightened intrigue on the eve of the playoffs, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn mustering the perfect game-plan as he baited Darnold into reverting to an eerie image of his former self.

Darnold faced his third-highest pressure rate of the year as the Lions pressured him on 49 per cent of plays, according to Next Gen Stats. That came as Detroit blitzed Darnold on almost 56 per cent of drop backs, namely a season-high rate of zero blitzes as Glenn doubled up on additional secondary rushes off either edge.

It coupled with a heavy emphasis on a flood of disguises and man coverage in disrupting Darnold's field diagnosis, stunting his processing and rocking his timing to make for a miserable day of missed throws, rushed decisions and second-guessing himself. By the end of the game Darnold had squandered at least three red-zone touchdown passes while finishing one of nine on throws inside the 10-yard line.

A murky pocket took its toll as Darnold went just four-of-18 when pressured, according to Pro Football Reference. While a player-positive Dan Campbell cited it as Detroit's way of not allowing Darnold to "pick us apart", Glenn dared to believe he could fright Minnesota's quarterback into a reminder of his early NFL career.

The Vikings now face a Rams defense that has blitzed teams on 23.1 per cent of plays this season, in comparison to Detroit's 34.6 per cent (Pro Football Reference), while amassing a pressure rate of 21.4 per cent behind a lead quartet of Braden Fiske - who leads the team with 8.5 sacks - Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Defensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Jared Verse. Glenn and Detroit delivered something of a blueprint: squeeze the pocket until it can be squeezed no more.

And while Minnesota have found joy in spearheading the league in blitz rate behind Brian Flores, they will now face a Matthew Stafford-led Rams offense that has feasted on additional rushers. The game could come down to Darnold and his ability to maximise the explosive plays of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison that have ignited the Vikings offense.

"It was a series of bad events that led them to that situation (against the Lions)," said Zone Sporty VIP NFL's Phoebe Schecter. "You look at the film and you think there are some really great things we put on film. Sam Darnold, you're still Sam Darnold, you just have to big him up this week."

In Darnold is the newest reminder that time, and situations, and patience, and perhaps most importantly, good coaching, can reinvent a quarterback career.

His comeback has been admirable and one of the stories of the 2024 season but the NFL is a cut-throat business of miniscule margins. His future could well rest on how he amends his mistakes against the Lions in this weekend's win-or-go-home matchup.

Watch the Minnesota Vikings face the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card round of the NFL postseason, live on Zone Sporty VIP NFL at 1am Tuesday morning; stream with NOW.